Hello all and welcome back to Year 7 of the MVFC
I thought it was time we got a blog post going. Please remember the rules of the blog post; skip the intro, scroll down to your name and take everything said as a personal insult.
The long cold fantasy winter is over. The snow is melting, the birds are singing and the Gronks are spiking. Fantasy Football has risen and it is a glorious day!
There is nothing better than the first week of the NFL season. The nerves, the anticipation, the beliefs that the Falcons wont break our hearts. It’s living in a fantasy world and I am here for it.
I wish you all good luck and definitely hope none of your running backs get injured when i have #1 waiver priority.
Before the games lets get in a few preseason notes and predictions.
Parker
Where else would we start? Our reigning champ is here and ready to party. His good fortune has already continued into this season as he locked up the first overall pick. The number one overall pick wins almost 15% of fantasy leagues every year. To no ones surprise, he used that pick to snatch up Christian McCaffery. When healthy, there is no bigger fantasy matchup advantage than the Great White Hope. He followed that up with two of the biggest matchup nightmares in the NFL, AJ Brown and Darren Waller. In rounds 4 through 6, Parker sured up his RB2 and Flex spots by taking 3 running backs with a nice mixture of floor and upside. His 3rd wide receiver will be a question mark every week. He does have a lawyer in his household so he may need her to get on the phones and negotiate some trades if he plans on going back to back.
Bold Prediction
Parker finishes 5th losing out on a playoff spot by points scored
Verdict
40% chance of making the playoffs
Patrick
The Kliff Kingsbury of our league. He’s young, he’s creative but the football breaks just never seem to go his way. He’s chosen to build his team around a high flying passing game with the Cardinal’s young gunner at the helm. Kyler Murray absolutely lit the league up in the first half of his rookie year, but was much quieter once defenses got a read on him. With Murray almost guaranteed to finish in the top 2 of rushing yards by QB’s, he maintains a high weekly floor with huge upside should the cardinals offense reach its potential. Pat has a dream receiving core made up of Davante Adams, DK Metcalf and Cooper Kupp. But, his problems lie in his team’s ability to run the ball. David Montgomery started the season with 2 touchdowns through week 11 of the NFL season, but found the endzone 8 times in the final 6 weeks. With a bottom 5 o-line and shaky QB play, Montgomery will likely need massive volume to justify his position as Pat’s RB 1. Damien Harris is a Patriots running back who doesn’t catch passes, yikes. Trading Sony Michel clears the path for Harris to start the season with a huge workload, but every Patriots running back is one fumble away from heading to Belichick’s doghouse never to be heard from again. Pat stacked the Cardinals running backs and while they are both healthy their workloads and upside could be limited. However, if one of them gets injured the other could become a fantasy stud. His starting roster is filled out by Jonnu Smith and like half the league, Pat will just be hoping his team’s tight end falls into the endzone on a weekly basis. Pat’s Bench is filled with back up running backs and high upside wide receivers.
Bold Prediction
Pat once again finds himself in the finals only to see heartbreak
Verdict
50% chance to make the playoffs
Tripp
A true Cinderella story, from perennial league bottom dweller to a constant championship contender. Tripp has found the secret to fantasy football success, children. Apparently what the children are whispering about this year is the 0WR strategy. Tripp waited until the 5th round to draft a wide receiver by far the latest in the league. His team is led by his AFC north running backs; Nick Chubb, Najee Harris and Gus Edwards. All three are locked in to RB 1 and goal line duties on teams that should move the ball, so the touchdowns will flow. That’s fortunate because his 3rd round pick George Kittle is allergic to them. A tight end with over 3,500 yards in 53 games should be dancing in the endzone on a weekly basis. However, with only 14 career touchdowns, Kittle looks the part of a 20 to 20 chain mover with a very high floor but low upside. As touched on above, the wide receive core is where this team falls apart. Odell “ the 6 million injuries man” Beckham hasn’t produced a top-15 WR season since 2016. Chase Claypool needs a massive upgrade in targets to make up for the clear TD regression his way. Laviska Shenault might be the 3rd WR on a team with a rookie QB. Speaking of young QB’s, the man tickling the centers balls for this team is Jalen Hurts. Although Hurts’ ability to lead a passing attack in the NFL is still unknown, his ability to run with the ball should give Tripp a great return on this 10th round draft pick.
*Editors Note- Gus Edwards has torn his ACL
Bold Prediction
Tripp’s choice to trust his infant son over his daughter who has brought him nothing but glory will be his downfall. He misses the playoffs for the first time since joining the league. Misogyny is not a good look.
Verdict 20% chance to make the playoffs
Mike
This is a team on the come up. With a 20 – 29 record over the first 4 seasons of MVFC and no playoff appearances, Mike was written off as a non-factor in championship discussions. But having made back to back playoff seasons, Mike seems on the cusp of making a true championship run. The foundations of that run have been laid in this draft. Saquon looks set to go for Week 1 and he should be a league leader in total touches. Clyde Edwards-Helaire still has a Darrell Williams problem but if the playoffs are any indication he should see more than enough touches to make him a high end RB2. Taking the Tampa Bay receivers together is a bold choice but it should result in a solid weekly floor with somewhat of a capped weekly upside. Tyler Boyd should be a solid floor play though his upside is much higher in full PPR. TJ Hockenson is probably the best of the rest at tight end but if the Lions are terrible he might struggle to put up TDs. Overall I think this team is solid but could be in a dogfight every week. I doubt Mike puts up the highest score or lowest score in any individual week this season.
Bold Prediction
Mike’s team scores the 5th most overall points but makes the playoffs
Verdict
50% chance to make the playoffs
Richie
This legislative genius knows all the rules and regulations of the league. He must know of a loophole in the scoring system that I don’t because this draft strategy was a doozie. Travis Kelce is a matchup advantage week in and week out but taking him in the first round has led to some holes in this roster. Antonio Gibson is a fine if underwhelming RB1. But, Javonte Williams is locked into a timeshare with Melvin Gordon and I’ve got a sneaking suspicion Richie will be in the market for a RB come week 2. CeeDee Lamb at WR 1 is another question mark as the Cowboys will be loaded at wide receiver and aren’t likely to be as bad on defense as they were a year ago. The Titans coaching staff were absolutely shocked when they heard how little Julio practiced in Atlanta. Between Julio’s need for chemistry with Tannehill and an owner who doesn’t cater to his every whim, Julio will be spending a lot more time on the practice field this season. I think this leads to him spending more time on the trainer’s table on Sundays. If JuJu stops tik toking his life away he could be a great WR3. But, he might need to increase his target share when the touchdown regression kicks in. Nobody in this league knows how to make a deal like Mr. O’Connell and he will likely need those skills if he wants to make a run at a title this year.
Bold Prediction
Richie leads the league in trades this season
Verdict
20% chance of making the playoffs
Chip
I love this Team! Best in the league! Obviously! But since I’m negging everyone else’s team I guess I must attempt to tear mine down as well.
Chip is the Notre Dame of Fantasy Football. Within the first three years of the MVFC, Chip had amassed three finals appearances, one title and the only triple crown in league history. But since then, he’s failed to make a single playoff appearance. He’s sometimes still mentioned with the contenders but only off successes from a bygone era. A questionable first round decision could ultimately decide whether Chip returns to his old form. Jonathan Taylor took 10 weeks to fully take over as the primary back in Indianapolis even though his primary competition for work got hurt week 1. Marlon Mack is back and could eat into the workload Taylor needs to finish as an RB1. James Robinson is a solid RB2 with Etienne out for the year but Urban Meyer loves Carlos Hyde. Calvin Ridley should be a stud but the rest of the receiving corps are meh at best. Tyler Higbee is just another tight end who you hope falls into the endzone. But, Chip’s biggest problem is the flex just a whole bunch of mediocre wide receivers (at least until Michael Thomas comes back). Overall Chip is going to need his running backs to get true RB1 workloads to have success this season.
Bold Prediction
Michael Thomas returns from injury and ends the season as a top 10 receiver on a per game basis
Verdict
20% chance to make the playoffs
Sam
A ground and pound team at its core, Sam chose a running back with his first three picks. Although none are likely to finish top 5, all three are likely to be targeted in the pass game often giving them high weekly floors. In the passing game, Sam opted for the Seattle stack of Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett. In their first 8 games of 2020, these two combined for a dominant 44.8 points per game. But in the second half, the two dropped to only 27.2. Much of Sam’s success will be determined by the Seahawks willingness to let Russ cook. Two high upside but low floor WR 3’s, Tee Higgins and Deebo Samuel, fill out Sam’s wide receiver corps. Dallas Goedert rounds out Sam’s starting lineup and like everyone but the top 5 tight ends, you’ve just got to have hope he finds paydirt for him to matter. Sam’s bench is filled with back up running backs and high upside wide receivers.
Bold Prediction
Dallas Goedert falls in the endzone more than other shitty tight ends, finishes top-5 at the position.
Verdict
30% chance to make the playoffs but if he makes it he’ll probably win it
Richburg
Richburg holds the unique distinction as the only member of the league to win a title and take home the shaft. He also holds the distinction for most likely to get laid while wearing daisy dukes. The first couple of rounds fell perfectly for Richburg. Zeke was the last of the elite running backs. Stefon Diggs and Allen Robinson fell well below ADP and gave Richburg the most solid starting trio in the league. But, things get dicey from here. An overpay on Kyle Pitts (no rookie TE has ever been fantasy relevant), followed by paying a premium for Josh Allen (biggest regression candidate in the league), left Richburg with massive holes at wide receiver and running back. Rumors out of camp say that Ja’Marr Chase can’t catch. Chase recently did an interview saying he couldn’t see the ball because it doesn’t have the white stripes that the NCAA footballs have. DeVonte Smith is talented but very undersized. David Johnson is the 3rd RB on his own team. All three of those players need to produce for this team to go anywhere.
Bold Prediction
Richburg will have to slide into the daisy dukes once again as he takes home the Shaft
Verdict
20% chance to make the playoffs
J.W.
The Man, the Myth, the Legend. No one has more of a state’s right to play fantasy football than this guy. JW hopes his upcoming nuptials bring him good luck in the coming season. Patrick Mahomes vows to never let him down. JW has promised to love Davin Cook in sickness and in health, though knowing Dalvin it’ll mostly be sickness. Slight pause from the wedding jokes, this team has some sick alliteration superhero names; Chris Carson, Justin Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy. In all seriousness though, this may be the best draft JW has ever had and it really does show the power of tequila.
Bold Prediction
JW leads the League in scoring but has a heartbreaking defeat in the first round of the playoffs.
Verdict
50% Chance to make the playoffs
Corey
Coined the “Nicest Guy in Fantasy Football”. Corey doesn’t quite prove the old adage that nice guys finish last. But, he does show they don’t finish first. As you would expect from a man of substance, his draft strategy was tried and true. Running backs and wide receivers are the meat and potatoes of fantasy football, and Corey ate well. Alvin Kamara is a year in year out stud who will likely see a very heavy workload through week 6 when Michael Thomas comes off of IR. Deandre Hopkins fits that same mold and though some are worried about all of the pass catchers in Arizona, the alpha dog always eats first. Terry “F1” McLauren and Diontae Johnson (always gotta have a Steeler don’t ya) are 3rd year receivers with proven floors and massive upside. In the 5th Corey went discount shopping and got Myles Gaskins who was being taken in the 3rd round before the season. In week 1 of the preseason, Malcolm Brown got some run with the Dolphins 1’s and everybody freaked out. But since then, Gaskins has been getting the workhorse treatment and looks a lock to out preform his draft slot. Unaffected by the offseason drama, Corey reached for Rodgers in the 7th and will hope his efficiency stays the same while the Packers increase their passing volume. Mike Gesicki will be the tight end for this team and like all the other late round tight ends, he will be touch down dependent on a week to week basis. This team is solid from top to bottom and if he avoids injuries, Corey will be playing in week 16 and 17.
Bold Prediction
Corey breaks through and takes home his first title.
Verdict
60% chance to make the playoffs
Wilburn
Finally we have the man who grabbed the shaft early last season and never let it slip out of his hairy palms. There have been murmurs that he is trying to absolve himself his duties to ride the bull. It makes it even more worrying that he drafted the bills defense as an apparent slap in the face to the traditions of this league. He may not want to ride the bull, but he will definitely be riding the work horse Derrick Henry. This man gets more touches than a catholic altar boy in the early 2000’s. Wilburn reached up and took his man Miles Sanders well above his ADP. But, if Sanders gets the workload in a revamped Eagles offense it could be a move that outsmarts the experts. The combination of Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen and Kenny Golladay provides a solid if not inspired wide receiving core. Justin Herbert and Mark Andrews should provide above average production and small matchup advantages at their respective positions. If the Texans are as bad as everyone expects them to be, Brandin Cooks could see a ton of garbage time work and everybody loves garbage time points.
Bold Prediction
Wilburn moves to Vermont solely to avoid riding the bull (not actually a bold prediction he’s told me multiple times this is his plan)
Verdict
25% chance he makes the playoffs
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